We have just released our 5 year outlook for the global CTRM markets as part of our 2016-2021 CTRM Market Outlook Report. This year’s report is available in an abridged summary version as a free download or for online viewing at https://www.ctrmcenter.com/publications/reports/2016-2021-ctrm-market-outlook/. A full report, providing a detailed review of the global markets by commodity, industry segments and geography is available for purchase ($799) by selecting that option on the same link, or by this link Full 2016 – 2021 CTRM Market Outlook Report >>
Following is the summary view of our market outlook from 2017-2021 included in that report:
In developing our five year market outlook, the following assumptions were utilized:
- Growth estimates reflects current consensus outlook for global economic growth of 3 to 3.5% per year for the foreseeable future. Though this rate has been revised upward when compared with recent years, much of the forecast growth is expected to occur in developing countries, regions in which there is little or no market for CTRM products. With slower but steady growth in the larger economies (China being an exception at 6-7%), overall growth in the market for CTRM products is anticipated to be in line with earlier ComTech estimates.
- All data is expressed in 2016 dollars – there have been no adjustments for inflation or currency exchange rate changes over the period 2017 to 2021.
- In line with previous estimates, ComTech currently believes the global market for CTRM licenses (including ASP/SaaS) will grow 4-6% annually from 2017 to 2021, with a forecast CAGR for the period of 5%. However, as noted earlier, as the trend toward cloud deployment of CTRM solutions continues, it is difficult at this time to accurately forecast the changing mix of perpetual license vs. annual license revenues with any real certainty and market results during the forecast period could show significant inconsistency from year to year.
In general, we believe future market growth will reflect an increasing number of smaller deals as E/CTRM software is more readily adopted in the cloud by smaller firms that would have otherwise been priced out of the market for traditional software. Additionally, as many larger firms have indicated they are committed to moving their current CTRM solutions into the cloud, we anticipate slowing growth and a potential decline in revenues associated with support and maintenance payments. Nonetheless, as these larger end-user companies transition their CTRM installations from on-premises servers to cloud deployments, additional vendor revenues will be generated by both annual cloud “rentals” and services revenues as vendors assist these customers with the transition.
In developing our outlook for the global CTRM markets, we reviewed the current and perspective market by commodities, geographies and industrial market segments; developing our topside outlook of the market based upon this granular review. In line with previous years’ estimates, we anticipate the total global CTRM market will grow by 4-6%, with our estimates reflecting a 5-year CAGR of 5%.
Based upon these assumptions, we project full year 2017 CTRM market revenues at $1.55B, 2018 at $1.65B, 2019 at $1.72B, 2020 at $1.80B and 2021 at $1.89B.